Altcoin Rally Brewing: Analysts Predict Strongest Surge Since 2017
Analysts Point to Chart Patterns and Capital Inflows as Fuel for a Historic Altcoin Run
The altcoin market may be heading for its most powerful rally since 2017, according to prominent analysts tracking capital movements and market structures. New momentum signals, combined with a surge in market capitalization and favorable liquidity metrics, suggest that altcoins are preparing to break out in a manner not seen in nearly a decade.
$126 Billion Surge Signals Early Altseason Spark
In Q2 alone, the altcoin market cap (excluding Ethereum) added $126 billion, triggering optimism from analysts who have closely monitored TOTAL3 — the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crypto analyst Javon Marks emphasized that this rally follows a key breakout and retest on the TOTAL3 vs. U.S. money supply chart, a metric that tracks the purchasing power of altcoins against broader liquidity in the U.S. economy.
“Altcoins have bounced off of the breakout retest against the US money supply and can deliver one of their most powerful runs since 2017!” said Marks.
This dynamic suggests that altcoins are absorbing fresh capital inflows and outperforming even amid a cautious macro environment.
Chart Patterns Mirror 2021 Altcoin Surge
Adding to the bullish sentiment, pseudonymous analyst Moustache pointed to a weekly inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the TOTAL3 chart. This technical formation — historically seen as a bullish reversal indicator — has previously preceded rallies where top altcoins surged 174%, while Bitcoin only rose by 20% during the same stretch in 2021.
The formation now suggests “much higher levels” for altcoins in 2025, with patterns closely resembling those of the last explosive altseason.
Caution Lingers Despite Bullish Signs
TOTAL2 and Bitcoin Dominance Remain Resistance Points
Not everyone is convinced that the rally is here just yet. Crypto Scient, a respected technical analyst, cautioned that the TOTAL2 chart (altcoins excluding Bitcoin) still lacks a confirmed higher timeframe bullish structure. He noted resistance at the $1.25 trillion level, warning that the market could still be in a distribution phase rather than early accumulation.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance — the metric that compares Bitcoin’s market cap to that of the entire crypto market — is still above 60%, a level historically unfavorable for altcoin breakouts. Analyst DonaXBT suggested that dominance must fall below 60% and retest the 56–58% support range for altcoins to truly surge.
“Until BTC dominance breaks down significantly, altcoins will face headwinds,” said DonaXBT.
Volumes and Sentiment: Early, But Promising
Altcoin Trading Volumes Still Lag, But Trend Turning
While structural signals are promising, trading volumes tell a more cautious story. Data from CryptoQuant shows that daily altcoin spot trading remains between $3B and $5B, notably lower than the $8B to $12B seen in late 2024. This subdued activity points to a rally still in its infancy — one that has not yet attracted widespread retail participation.
Supporting this, the Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 24, firmly in “Bitcoin season” territory, according to Blockchaincenter.net. Historically, altcoin rallies begin when the index pushes above 30–40, signaling capital rotation from Bitcoin into smaller-cap assets.
Despite the muted volumes, investors and analysts alike see the current setup as a runway for altcoins — and not the destination.
📉 Summary of Key Metrics
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Altcoin market cap added $126B in Q2 (excluding Ethereum).
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Altcoin spot trading volumes: $3B–$5B/day (Q2), vs. $8B–$12B/day (Q4 2024).
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Altcoin Season Index: 24 (still favors Bitcoin dominance).
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Bitcoin dominance: Above 60%, still in an uptrend.
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Historical performance: Altcoins +174% vs. Bitcoin +20% during final leg of 2021 rally.
