Bitcoin Eyes $95K as Trade Tensions Ease — But Are Futures Traders On Board?
BTC Climbs to $91K Amid Hopes of US-China Tariff Truce and Market Recovery
In a surprising rally, Bitcoin surged past $91,000 on April 22 — its highest level in 45 days — igniting talk of a possible run toward $95,000. The price surge came alongside record highs in gold and a bounce in stock markets, as investors latched onto signals that global trade tensions may be easing.
But despite the optimism, there’s one question on everyone’s mind: Are Bitcoin futures traders buying into the bullish narrative?
Bitcoin’s Ascent Mirrors Market Optimism
Bitcoin’s recent move — a $6,840 climb in just two days — suggests that some investors are betting big on a continued rally. Meanwhile, comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who called the trade standoff with China “unsustainable,” added fuel to the market’s risk-on sentiment.
However, former President Donald Trump struck a different tone on social media, blaming Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for slowing economic growth by not cutting interest rates.
Still, the market mood has improved. The S&P 500 and other major indices rebounded as hopes grew for de-escalation in U.S.-China tariffs, while Bitcoin climbed 6.3% over the past month, outperforming many traditional assets.
Futures Premiums Show Cautious Optimism
Bitcoin 2-Month Futures Annualized Premium: 6%
While Bitcoin’s spot price reflects bullish momentum, futures markets are showing restraint. Currently, the BTC futures premium sits at 6%, a middle-of-the-road signal that suggests traders aren’t betting aggressively on a breakout just yet.
In neutral markets, BTC futures premiums typically hover between 5% and 10% — meaning today’s sentiment remains lukewarm, despite the recent spike.
History Haunts the $90K Range
Many traders still remember March’s volatility when Bitcoin briefly touched $95,000 on March 3 — only to plummet to $81,464 within 24 hours. Since hitting an all-time high of $109,346 on Jan. 20, Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim that momentum, creating a psychological barrier at the $90K level.
Some traders describe the area as “PTSD territory”, noting that Bitcoin’s repeated failures at this range have eroded short-term confidence.
Options Markets Signal No Clear Bullish Sentiment
To gauge professional sentiment, traders often look to options market data — especially the 25% delta skew, a key indicator of bullish or bearish bias. A skew below -6% suggests bullishness, while above +6% indicates fear.
Right now, the delta skew is at -2%, which is considered neutral. The last truly bullish reading occurred on Jan. 30, when BTC hovered near $105,000.
This indicates that, despite the spot price surge, institutional investors and market makers are not yet positioning for a major breakout.
Macro Factors: Bonds Up, Bitcoin Outshines Big Tech
As Bitcoin shines, U.S. government bonds are also attracting attention, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling to 3.81% — a sign that investors are shifting to safer assets amid economic uncertainty.
Even more striking, Bitcoin’s 32% drawdown from peak to trough is less severe than losses from Big Tech giants like Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla — a sign of relative strength in the digital asset.
What Comes Next? Waiting on Trade Talks and Earnings
Looking forward, traders seem to be waiting on clarity from the U.S.-China trade front before making bigger bets. Earnings season could also provide fresh momentum, with analysts at FactSet projecting 14.8% growth for the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks in Q1.
While there’s still a path to $95,000, the data suggests that a broader breakout will require more than just headlines — traders want confirmation from futures markets, macro trends, and institutional players.
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