Bitcoin Eyes Breakout as Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise to 60%
Investors Brace for $100K Surge as US Economy Shows Signs of Weakness
Bitcoin is approaching a decisive moment, with the price hovering near $95,000 as expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut climb to 60% following a disappointing GDP report.
On May 1, Bitcoin rallied after a brief dip below $93,000, buoyed by renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates during the June 18 FOMC meeting. Economic data released earlier in the week pointed to a slowing U.S. economy — a signal that monetary easing could be imminent.
Rate Cuts Could Propel Bitcoin Beyond $100K
Bitcoin’s current momentum builds on increasing speculation that the Fed will cut rates to stimulate the economy. In the past, such policy shifts have triggered rallies in risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies.
“The odds of a June rate cut jumped from 57% on April 30 to 60% on May 1,” according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
This shift in expectations has traders now eyeing a potential surge above the critical $95,000 resistance level. A breakout could push BTC toward the psychological $100,000 mark. According to pseudonymous analyst AlphaBTC, “A clean move through $95K opens the path to low $100Ks — that’s where the squeeze could really accelerate.”
Key Technical Levels Back Bullish Outlook
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin has reclaimed two significant metrics: the 111-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $91,300 and the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $93,200. These thresholds have historically served as turning points for major price movements.
“These are levels that must be held for further price appreciation,” Glassnode noted in its latest Week Onchain report.
The combination of favorable macroeconomic conditions and strong technical positioning suggests the cryptocurrency market may be on the cusp of another major leg higher — if the upcoming May 2 jobs report doesn’t surprise to the downside.
Market Poised but Not Without Risk
Still, analysts remain cautious. A drop below $93,000 could invalidate the bullish setup, potentially dragging Bitcoin back toward the $84,000–$88,000 range. Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades warned, “As long as the price consolidates upward without rejection, the next natural step is $100K — but failure at these levels could flip the momentum.”
Investors now turn their attention to labor market data and the Fed’s next move — both of which could tip the scales either way.
