Bitcoin Inches Toward $100K as Institutional Inflows Surge — But Traders Stay Cautious

Bitcoin Inches Toward $100K as Institutional Inflows Surge — But Traders Stay Cautious

Despite Record ETF Demand, Bitcoin Futures Traders Signal Doubt Over a New All-Time High

Bitcoin is once again flirting with six-figure territory after briefly breaking out to $97,930—its highest price in ten weeks. The move followed a week of tight-range trading and was fueled by a massive $3.6 billion influx into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Yet, for all the optimism in the spot markets, futures traders remain skeptical.

ETF Inflows Suggest Institutional Confidence

The net inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs in just two weeks are significant by any metric. A $3.6 billion surge points to deepening institutional interest, an important marker as Bitcoin seeks to consolidate its status among mainstream asset classes.

This capital injection pushed Bitcoin past silver’s market cap, making it the seventh-largest tradable asset globally, just below gold. But despite the landmark, Bitcoin’s price only rose about 5% during the same period, raising questions about whether this demand is translating into true market momentum.

Futures Data Paints a More Reserved Picture

Looking under the hood, derivatives tell a different story. The two-month futures premium on Bitcoin remains between 6% and 7%—neutral territory. Earlier this year, when BTC was at a similar price near $95,000, that premium was well over 10%.

This shift suggests a drop in conviction among futures traders. While they’re not bearish, they are clearly avoiding aggressive long positions—holding back leverage despite bullish spot indicators.

Options Market Shows Quiet Bullishness

In contrast, the Bitcoin options market shows that large players and market makers are beginning to bet on a breakout. The 25% delta skew—a gauge of whether investors favor calls or puts—is now near its lowest level since mid-February. That’s a strong signal that big money sees more upside potential than downside risk.

This subtle optimism contrasts sharply with the more defensive stance just weeks ago, when put options (bets against BTC) traded at a premium. Still, it’s worth noting that this bullish tilt hasn’t translated into aggressive positioning—hedging and caution still dominate the strategy.

Global Risk Clouds the Path to $100K

Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh heavily. Ongoing U.S.-China tariff tensions are already affecting global trade and threatening economic growth—concerns that crypto markets cannot ignore.

Meanwhile, gold’s 20% rally, rising from $2,680 to $3,220, has outpaced Bitcoin’s gains. With gold now commanding a $21.7 trillion market cap, some investors question whether Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative still holds water, especially given its high correlation with equity markets.

Cautious Optimism Could Spark a Surprise Rally

Though futures traders are treading carefully, that very restraint could create fertile ground for an unexpected rally. With leverage low and most market participants hedging their bets, any upside catalyst—whether geopolitical or institutional—could push Bitcoin past $100,000 faster than many anticipate.

Still, as long as Bitcoin moves in lockstep with the S&P 500, and with trade war tensions unresolved, the dream of a six-figure BTC may need to wait. For now, the data shows moderate bullish momentum, with whales keeping one hand on the exit.