Bitcoin on Track for $200K Amid U.S. Fiscal Storm, Say Bitwise Analysts
Bitwise Asset Management analysts project Bitcoin’s price could surge past $200,000 by year-end, with a “fair value” potentially reaching $230,000, as America’s swelling debt and proposed tax cuts reshape global risk hedging strategies.
Trump’s Tax Plan and Ballooning U.S. Debt Spark Bitcoin Momentum
In their weekly outlook, Bitwise researchers André Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi point to an increasingly unsustainable U.S. fiscal trajectory. Former President Donald Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — a sweeping tax reduction plan — would exacerbate already mounting federal deficits, they argue.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, net interest payments are expected to triple to $3 trillion by 2030, triggering fears of a potential U.S. sovereign default.
“Bitcoin’s scarcity and resilience position it uniquely to benefit from both fiscal instability and improving market sentiment,” the Bitwise analysts wrote.
This macroeconomic tension is fueling a narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge — much like gold — against deteriorating sovereign creditworthiness and fiat devaluation.
Bitcoin’s Dip to $100K Was Brief — Rebound Signals Strong Market Confidence
Bitcoin recently dropped 6% to around $100,000 amid a public spat between Trump and Elon Musk, who criticized the tax bill. But the asset quickly bounced back over the weekend.
“Despite a short-lived dip to $100K during the Musk-Trump spat, BTC quickly rebounded on short liquidations. The backdrop remains constructive,” Bitwise noted.
OTT Indicator, Power Models Signal Bullish Continuation
A separate analysis by Stockmoney Lizards observed that Bitcoin’s Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT) signal — a bullish breakout indicator — has now triggered for the first time since mid-2024. Historically, this has preceded major rallies.
This aligns with an earlier prediction from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who told Cointelegraph in May that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by end of 2025, driven by a supply shock from rising institutional demand.
Also lending weight is the “power law” model, which has reliably predicted past market tops and bottoms. It, too, points to a $200,000 BTC price as a realistic outcome in the current cycle.
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