Bitcoin Treasury Model May Be Losing Steam, Analyst Warns

Smaller Firms Could Face Collapse Without Clear Strategy or Niche

The once-celebrated Bitcoin treasury strategy—adopted by corporate giants like MicroStrategy—is showing signs of fatigue, according to Glassnode lead analyst James Check, who warns the model may have a “far shorter lifespan” than many expect.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) last Friday, Check noted that while some firms continue to add Bitcoin to their reserves, newer entrants may find it harder to gain traction or investor confidence.

“It Could Already Be Over” for Late Entrants

“My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect,” Check wrote, adding, “For many new entrants, it could already be over.”

According to Check, the early movers like MicroStrategy (MSTR)—which now holds 597,325 BTC—have locked in market dominance, making it tough for newer companies to build credibility. For comparison, MARA Holdings, the second-largest public holder, owns just 50,000 BTC, roughly one-twelfth of MSTR’s stash.

“Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company,” Check added, pointing to a saturation point where speculative interest in Bitcoin-heavy firms may no longer yield the same premium valuations.

Bitcoin Treasury Model: Retail Interest, but Finite Money

In the past 30 days, 21 entities have added Bitcoin as a reserve asset, per data from BitcoinTreasuries.net. While the trend continues to attract interest—particularly from retail investors—Check warned that these backers “don’t have infinite money.”

“We’re already close to the ‘show me’ phase,” Check said, referring to growing investor skepticism. “It will be increasingly difficult for random company X to sustain a premium and get off the ground without a serious niche.”

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $107,990, about 3.7% below its all-time high of $111,970, according to CoinMarketCap. The coin is up 2.87% over the past 30 days.

Will the Weak Get Acquired—or Collapse?

Other crypto voices are echoing Check’s concern. Taproot Wizards co-founder Udi Wertheimer accused some companies of using Bitcoin treasury announcements simply to attract short-term hype, calling many of them “clueless.”

“Many of the folks raising just see easy money and have no idea what they’re doing,” Wertheimer said. “The weak ones might be acquired at a discount by the strong ones.”

A recent report from venture capital firm Breed warned that only a handful of treasury-based firms will withstand market cycles, predicting a “death spiral” for those that hover too closely to net asset value (NAV) without a durable strategy.

Copycat Firms Pose New Risks to Bitcoin’s Reputation

The cautionary tone extends beyond performance. Fakhul Miah, managing director at GoMining Institutional, warned that “copycat” Bitcoin banks are popping up without the necessary risk management or safeguards in place.

“If these smaller firms crash, we could see a ripple effect that hurts Bitcoin’s image,” Miah said in an interview with Cointelegraph.

As the ecosystem matures, the message is clear: simply buying Bitcoin is no longer enough. Without a clear niche, operational strength, and investor trust, new treasury strategies may fizzle before they flourish.