Bitcoin’s Path to $100K Faces Resistance, Despite $3B in ETF Inflows

Bitcoin’s Path to $100K Faces Resistance, Despite $3B in ETF Inflows

Bitcoin’s recent price surge has sparked fresh discussions about its potential to break the $100,000 mark, but analysts are raising concerns that the upside may hit resistance as ETF inflows continue to grow. Despite a record-breaking $3 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows, the question remains: Will Bitcoin’s rally stop at $100K or push further into uncharted territory?

Bitcoin ETF Inflows: A Mixed Indicator for Price Movement

Bitcoin’s price recovery from its lows of $74,400 has been nothing short of impressive, with a recent 8% gain over the past week, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. The rally has been driven by strong investor interest, particularly in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded a $3.06 billion net weekly inflow, the largest since December 2025.

However, the relationship between high ETF inflows and Bitcoin price movements remains complex. Historical data shows mixed outcomes, as significant inflows have sometimes marked a local price top, but not always.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Preceding Price Peaks, But Not Always

In March 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of over $1 billion, including $849 million into BlackRock’s IBIT. This influx preceded a new all-time high of $73,300, suggesting that the inflows were a signal of a potential top. Similarly, on June 3, 2024, inflows hit $917 million, coinciding with a price rally from $67,000 to $72,000, followed by a 25% correction to $53,000.

Yet, November 2024 painted a different picture. Despite seeing $3.38 billion in weekly inflows and multiple all-time highs, Bitcoin’s price did not top out immediately. Instead, BTC surged past the $100,000 mark, eventually reaching $108,000 by December 2025.\

Using a Vector Autoregression model, FalconX revealed that ETF inflows tend to have a short-term predictive power for price increases, rather than price reversals. This suggests that while ETF demand often correlates with Bitcoin’s price rises, it may not necessarily indicate an immediate correction.

Resistance at $95K: Bitcoin’s Struggle to Push Past the Next Hurdle

As Bitcoin consolidates around the $95,000 level, it faces significant resistance. AlphaBTC, a popular analyst, highlighted that the $95,000 level has held BTC’s price in check over the past few days. “I think we push to $100K, but then likely see a bigger pullback,” he noted in a post on X.

Bitcoin’s rally has seen it flip key levels into support, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), all of which are key technical indicators. However, CoinGlass data reveals strong seller interest in the $97,000-$100,000 range, suggesting that Bitcoin might face selling pressure as it approaches these levels.

Can Bitcoin Break the $100K Barrier?

The $100,000 milestone looms large for Bitcoin, but analysts remain cautious. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, expressed doubts about Bitcoin’s ability to maintain a sustained rally above $95,000. Similarly, QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin currently lacks a major “catalyst” to push it toward the $100,000 target.

While ETF inflows have played a crucial role in Bitcoin’s recent rally, the $100,000 resistance may ultimately decide whether Bitcoin can sustain its upward momentum or experience a pullback.