Is XRP Headed for Another Crash or a Surprise Rally? Market Signals Split on Future Price Action
Wedge patterns, RSI trends, and realized price gaps hint at conflicting outcomes for XRP’s next move
XRP’s price is back in focus after a three-week surge pushed it up by more than 40%, reaching $2.28 on April 29. But behind the rally, a series of technical signals are raising red flags — and rekindling fears that XRP may be entering territory seen just before major crashes in 2018 and 2021.
While some traders are betting on a rebound to nearly $3 by June, others warn that a sharp correction could send XRP tumbling below $2 in the coming weeks.
Short-Term Danger: Rising Wedge Pattern Points to Selloff
On the 4-hour chart, XRP is forming a rising wedge, a pattern often associated with weakening bullish momentum. The token currently trades near $2.29, hugging the wedge’s upper resistance band.
A confirmed break below the wedge’s lower support could drive the price down to $1.89 — a 17% drop — by mid-May.
Adding to the caution is XRP’s relative strength index (RSI), which hovers near 60, suggesting the asset is nearing overbought conditions. This raises the likelihood of profit-taking, especially after the recent rally.
Long-Term Concern: XRP Is Over 120% Above Its Realized Price
One of the most important metrics flashing warning signs is XRP’s realized price, which currently stands around $1.02. This is the average cost basis of all tokens in circulation — essentially a measure of the market’s aggregate investment level.
At over 120% above its realized price, XRP may be trading in speculative territory. In both 2018 and 2021, similar gaps between market and realized price led to sharp declines, as euphoric buying gave way to panic selling.
A repeat of that pattern in 2025 could see XRP retreat toward $1.02, implying a potential 50%+ drop from current levels.
Bullish Setup: Weekly Falling Wedge and EMA Support Offer Hope
Despite the looming downside risks, XRP isn’t without bullish defenses. The weekly chart reveals a falling wedge — a pattern that historically precedes upward breakouts. This is backed by XRP’s strong hold above the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.67.
This EMA acted as long-term resistance during the 2022–2024 bear cycle and now appears to be a key level of support.
If buyers can push the price above the wedge’s upper boundary, XRP could target $2.92 by June — a 25% gain from current levels. The weekly RSI bounce from the midpoint strengthens this possibility, indicating a possible resurgence in bullish sentiment.
Conclusion: Caution vs. Optimism as XRP Faces Technical Crossroads
With XRP trading well above its realized price and showing wedge patterns on multiple timeframes, the market sits at a critical inflection point. A breakdown could trigger a steep correction toward $1.89 or even $1.02, but a bullish breakout may propel the token back toward $2.92.
As with past cycles, momentum and investor sentiment will play a pivotal role in XRP’s next major move — and the clock is ticking.
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