Lyn Alden Adjusts Bitcoin Forecast Amid Tariff Tensions, Still Eyes $100K on Liquidity Surge
Top Macro Analyst Says Bitcoin Could Still Rally if Fed Unleashes QE or Yield Curve Control
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden has slightly lowered her Bitcoin price forecast for 2025, citing the impact of U.S. tariff announcements earlier this year. Still, she maintains that BTC is on track to finish 2025 higher than current levels, with the potential to reach or even exceed $100,000, depending on liquidity conditions.
In a recent appearance on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell, Alden explained that while she once projected an even stronger BTC rally, the “tariff kerfuffle” triggered by former President Donald Trump’s comments in February has introduced macroeconomic headwinds.
“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden said. “My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least.”
Massive Liquidity Events Could Ignite Bitcoin Surge
Alden pointed to a potential “massive liquidity unlock”—similar to past episodes of quantitative easing (QE) or yield curve control by the U.S. Federal Reserve—as a key catalyst that could drive Bitcoin to new heights.
Such a scenario could emerge, she said, if the U.S. bond market “broke” and required major intervention from the Fed. That would, in turn, flood the financial system with liquidity, boosting demand for non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s 24/7 Trading Adds to Volatility During Market Stress
Alden also highlighted that Bitcoin’s 24/7 availability can make it more volatile, especially during periods when traditional financial markets are closed.
“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” she said.
This round-the-clock trading makes Bitcoin more responsive to global fear and uncertainty, with price swings often amplified during moments of TradFi stress.
Global Liquidity Correlation: A Major Bitcoin Indicator
Despite the recent pullback—Bitcoin is down nearly 1% over the last 30 days—Alden remains bullish on the long-term trajectory of BTC. She believes Bitcoin can “disconnect” from tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100 and thrive during certain macro cycles.
She likens the current backdrop to the 2003–2007 pre-financial crisis period, where a weak U.S. dollar and global capital rotation into commodities and emerging markets offered fertile ground for alternative assets.
“If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn’t do particularly well,” Alden explained.
Her research further shows that Bitcoin tracks global M2 money supply movements 83% of the time over a 12-month window, underscoring its role as a “Global Liquidity Barometer.”
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