Arthur Hayes: U.S. Unlikely to Buy Bitcoin as Clubbing ‘Bitcoin Bros’ Undermine Narrative

Arthur Hayes: U.S. Unlikely to Buy Bitcoin as Clubbing ‘Bitcoin Bros’ Undermine Narrative

BitMEX Founder Points to Political Optics and National Debt as Barriers to Strategic BTC Accumulation

As pressure mounts on governments to consider Bitcoin as a strategic asset, Arthur Hayes believes the United States is unlikely to join the fray—at least not publicly.

The BitMEX co-founder spoke in a May 1 interview, expressing skepticism about the U.S. government’s willingness to openly accumulate Bitcoin for its reserves. The issue, Hayes suggests, goes beyond economics and into the realm of political optics.

“Is that really what you want people to think about your policy? A bunch of Bitcoin bros going to the club?” Hayes asked rhetorically.

The $18 Billion Bitcoin Question

The United States already holds 198,012 Bitcoin—worth over $18 billion, primarily from criminal seizures related to Silk Road and the Bitfinex hack. That stash remains untouched, forming what some see as an unofficial strategic reserve.

But Hayes argues that with America’s ballooning national deficit, expanding that reserve through direct purchases using freshly printed dollars is politically unpalatable.

“The United States is a deficit country. The only way they can do a Strategic Reserve is not sell the Bitcoin they took,” Hayes said. “Fine, that’s 200,000 Bitcoin.”

Public Image Problems: Why BTC’s Reputation Matters

According to Hayes, the public image of Bitcoin investors—often stereotyped as reckless, club-hopping speculators—poses a significant hurdle to government adoption.

“I’m not really into the whole Strategic Reserve situation,” he said. “Especially when the popular narrative is a bunch of Bitcoin bros going to the club.”

That perception may make it politically risky for any elected official to champion BTC as a sovereign asset.

Global Bitcoin Accumulation Could Trigger a Domino Effect

Despite Hayes’ skepticism, others in the crypto world see a government buying spree as inevitable.

Sergej Kunz, co-founder of aggregator 1inch, stated at a Dubai crypto event that once the U.S. begins buying Bitcoin, smaller nations may scramble to follow—possibly igniting a global race for crypto reserves.

“I’m pretty sure we’ll soon see countries battling over who owns more Bitcoin,” said Kunz. “The U.S. will start.”

Bitcoin Dominance Climbs—But Will Altcoin Season Follow?

Shifting gears to the broader crypto market, Hayes believes the market cycle remains unchanged. He forecasts that Bitcoin dominance—currently 64.78%—could climb back to 70%, mirroring 2021 levels before capital rotates into altcoins.

“It’s back at all-time highs; bull markets are back, and altcoins should outperform,” Hayes said. “Should is a keyword there.”

Not all analysts agree. Benjamin Cowen of Into The Cryptoverse dismissed the idea that BTC dominance will reach 70% again. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has also argued that altcoin season is now driven more by fiat and stablecoin pairs, not BTC rotation.

Narrative Risk: The Unseen Obstacle to Sovereign Bitcoin Buying

The core of Hayes’ argument is less about monetary policy and more about narrative risk. No politician, he argues, wants to be seen aligning U.S. financial strategy with “clubbing crypto bros.”

That perception could stall even the most economically rational case for Bitcoin accumulation—leaving the U.S. behind if other countries act first.