Bitcoin Crash to $26K? Analysts Reject Peter Brandt’s 75% Drop Scenario
Market Conditions Today Are a World Apart from 2022, Experts Say
Veteran Trader Questions BTC’s Trajectory, But Analysts Push Back
Renowned trader Peter Brandt stirred debate this week with a speculative post suggesting Bitcoin (BTC) could mirror its 2022 collapse and fall by 75%, potentially dropping to $26,000 from current levels near $107,800.
“Is Bitcoin following its 2022 script and setting up for a 75% correction? Doesn’t hurt to ask this, does it?” Brandt asked on X (formerly Twitter).
In 2022, BTC dropped from $69,000 to roughly $16,195, a 76% decline that shocked the market. But this time, industry analysts believe conditions are vastly different — making such a scenario “very unlikely.”
Analysts Say Current Market Is No Repeat of 2022
Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, responded bluntly:
“Never say never; it just feels very unlikely at the moment.”
According to Hundal, today’s economic fundamentals are stronger.
“In 2022, the crash came after the COVID-era spending boom,” he explained. “Stimulus checks were flowing, and many Americans were speculating in crypto. Now, the environment has completely changed.”
A 2021 survey revealed that 1 in 10 Americans aged 18–34 used part of their stimulus checks to buy crypto.
What Really Drove the 2022 Meltdown?
Analysts agree the collapse of FTX played a major role in the last bear market.
Andy Edstrom, Bitcoin analyst and author, noted that the crypto exchange “failed to fulfill customer orders and instead sold ‘paper’ BTC.”
The situation was worsened by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot, which began in late 2021 and rapidly drained market liquidity.
“The 2021 cycle was truncated,” Edstrom explained, suggesting that while corrections are possible, a 75% crash is not on the table this time.
Simon Amery, senior research analyst at Collective Shift, added that monetary policy today is moving in the opposite direction, with the Fed now expected to ease conditions, not tighten them.
Bitcoin Sentiment and Structure Still Point to Growth
Others remain confident Bitcoin hasn’t reached its peak yet.
“Sentiment is pretty bad for this to be a top. There’s no euphoria,” said Colin Talks Crypto.
Hundal also acknowledged short-term technical signals but emphasized that Bitcoin is “sitting at an inflection point for easing conditions.”
And Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy and prominent Bitcoin advocate, firmly dismissed any doomsday forecasts.
Share This“Winter is not coming back,” Saylor said in an interview with Bloomberg. “We’re past that phase. If Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million.”
