Bitcoin Breaks the Pattern: Up 33% Since 2024 Halving Amid Institutional Surge
Institutions, ETFs, and a Changing Global Economy Are Reshaping Bitcoin’s Traditional Halving Cycle
In a world rocked by trade wars and economic uncertainty, Bitcoin has defied expectations, surging 33% since the April 2024 halving. Traditionally seen as a four-year cycle of price movement and supply contraction, Bitcoin’s behavior this time may be hinting at something new: an accelerated market cycle driven by institutional momentum and financial innovation.
BTC Gains Despite Global Trade Tensions
The 2024 Bitcoin halving, which slashed mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, marked a pivotal moment. It’s the protocol’s built-in mechanism to maintain scarcity—one of Bitcoin’s most important monetary features.
Despite the geopolitical turbulence—including increasing tariffs between the U.S. and China—Bitcoin has remained resilient, climbing steadily and confidently through stormy markets.
“Even though Bitcoin’s showing resilience, I think the mix of past experiences, economic uncertainty, and this selling pressure is keeping investors on the sidelines,”
said Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at asset tokenization platform Brickken.
Institutions Are Fast-Tracking the Cycle
Cardozo believes institutional involvement from firms like Strategy and Tether is reshaping Bitcoin’s historical post-halving trajectory. He noted that the traditional bottom for post-halving cycles—usually 12–18 months after the event—could come sooner this time:
“For the 2024 halving, that puts the bottom around Q3 this year and a peak mid-2026, but the market’s more mature now with more liquidity, so we could see that shift.”
Bitcoin ETFs and corporate buyers are injecting liquidity and legitimacy at a scale never seen before. That’s speeding up everything.
Macroeconomics Still Hold Sway
While Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, its fate is still intertwined with broader monetary policy. A rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve, expected around May or June, could act as a further catalyst.
“A Fed rate cut could pump more money into the system and push Bitcoin up faster,” Cardozo added.
Faster Cycles, Soaring Scarcity, and New Highs
According to Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget Exchange, the momentum from ETFs combined with the post-halving supply crunch is likely to drive Bitcoin to new records.
“With growing scarcity triggered by the halving, Bitcoin will likely retest its all-time high if it breaches the $90,000 mark in the coming weeks,” he said. “But the timeline for impact on price still varies.”
Usi Zade pointed out that traditional financial market behavior and investor sentiment remain key influences on BTC’s future moves.
Bitcoin Is Breaking Its Own Records
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $109,000 on Jan. 20, 2025—just 273 days after the halving. That’s a dramatic acceleration compared to previous cycles:
-
546 days to hit a new high after the 2021 halving
-
518 days after the 2017 halving
This data, shared by popular crypto analyst Jelle, suggests that Bitcoin is entering a new, faster phase of its market evolution.
A New Era for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is no longer a niche experiment. With institutional backing, ETF flows, and macroeconomic tailwinds, it’s proving itself as a maturing asset class that no longer plays by its old rules.
As scarcity deepens and demand rises, the digital gold narrative is taking center stage again. If the pattern holds—and even accelerates—the world could witness Bitcoin’s next parabolic chapter much sooner than expected.
Share This
