Bitcoin Nears Golden Cross: Will History Repeat or Mislead?

Bitcoin Nears Golden Cross: Will History Repeat or Mislead?

Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to trigger a golden cross, a historically bullish technical signal, by the end of May 2025. This event occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above the 200-day SMA—and in the past, this crossover has often set the stage for significant price rallies.

Yet this technical milestone comes with cautionary tales. While some golden crosses have preceded gains as high as 60%, others have been quickly undone by unexpected global events.

Golden Crosses in the Past: Strong But Not Foolproof

Since 2021, Bitcoin has recorded three key golden cross events, each followed by sizable rallies:

• October 2023: BTC surged 45%, riding the wave of Bitcoin ETF optimism.

• September 2021: Bitcoin posted 50% gains after the signal.

• October 2024: A 60% increase followed, supported by market confidence during Trump’s reelection campaign.

But not all signals result in green candles. In February 2020, a golden cross misled traders into a bull trap. Just weeks later, BTC collapsed by 62%, triggered by the market-wide panic from COVID-19 lockdowns.

This serves as a sharp reminder: macro events can override technical indicators.

Is Bitcoin’s Current Golden Cross Different?

Several bullish fundamentals are aligning with the upcoming crossover:

• Rising M2 money supply is injecting liquidity into the economy.

• Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are restoring investor confidence.

Source: Michaël van de Poppe

However, warning signs remain. Bitcoin’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) crossed the overbought 70 threshold earlier in May, and now shows a bearish divergence—while the price climbs, RSI trends downward. This suggests potential for a short-term correction.

If a pullback occurs, analysts project it could take BTC back to the $92,400–$95,000 range, before possibly rallying further.

BTC Price Outlook: $150K in Sight or Another Trap Ahead?

Despite mixed signals, some analysts still eye $150,000 as a mid-term BTC price target, assuming current fundamentals hold. But with previous golden crosses providing both spectacular rallies and harsh corrections, traders are wise to remain vigilant.

Key Takeaways

• Golden cross likely by late May 2025, with BTC’s 50-day SMA crossing the 200-day SMA.

• Historically led to 45%–60% gains, but not immune to failure—February 2020 crash is a cautionary example.

• Bullish factors: rising M2 supply, U.S.-China trade stability, and historical patterns.

• Risks include: overbought RSI, bearish divergence, and possible retracement to $92K–$95K zone.

• Long-term upside projections stretch as far as $150K.