Bitcoin Rallies to $106K Amid Middle East Ceasefire and Fed Rate Shift

Bitcoin Rallies to $106K Amid Middle East Ceasefire and Fed Rate Shift

Geopolitical Easing and Market Bets Fuel Institutional Bitcoin Demand

Bitcoin surged back above $106,000 on Monday, recovering sharply from a weekend dip below $98,500 — its first break below $100K in 45 days. The rebound came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran, easing investor anxiety.

At the same time, growing speculation about a Federal Reserve interest rate cut added fuel to the crypto rally. Traders are now weighing whether Bitcoin could make a run for $110,000, or whether new global risks might keep prices volatile.

Institutional Confidence Remains Strong Despite $193M in Liquidations

Despite the brief price dip, Bitcoin’s derivatives market stayed firm. The rapid price movement led to $193 million in liquidations of leveraged long positions — roughly 0.3% of total futures open interest. Yet, the total open interest in Bitcoin futures remains steady at $68 billion, unchanged from Saturday.

Such pullbacks are not unusual. The 4.4% drop over 12 hours mirrors similar drawdowns seen three times in the past 30 days.

Bitcoin Hashrate Drops 8% as Middle East Tensions Spark Mining Concerns

Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped 8% between Sunday and Thursday, falling from 943.6 million TH/s to 865.1 million TH/s. This decline raised questions about mining operations in the Middle East, particularly in Iran, where some reports suggest that up to 2 gigawatts of electricity may be used for unauthorized crypto mining.

Still, analysts warn that regional data is often unreliable. Daniel Batten explained that such fluctuations are often tied to U.S.-based weather disruptions, rather than global conflict.

For example, on April 22, Bitcoin’s hashrate plunged 27% following severe storms in Texas and Oklahoma, including 17 tornadoes, which forced miners offline due to grid instability.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Grow as Oil Slips, Stocks Climb

Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday after briefly reaching $77 per barrel. The S&P 500 index gained 1%, signaling renewed market confidence. Meanwhile, traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut before the end of the year.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool:

• The chance the Fed keeps rates at 4.25% through November fell to 8.4%, down from 17.1% last week

• The probability of rates falling to 3.75% or lower rose to 53%, up from 38%

This policy shift could make risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive, especially as traditional markets respond to geopolitical developments.

Bitcoin Holds Strong in Global Unrest

While some traders remain cautious, the swift return above $106,000 suggests strong institutional conviction in Bitcoin, even amid global uncertainties.

Though hopes for $110,000 BTC may rely on fragile geopolitical optimism, recent market behavior shows Bitcoin’s increasing role as a macro-sensitive asset — one that investors are watching closely.