Bitcoin’s Bullish Signal Has 78% Accuracy—Analysts Say New Highs Likely

Bitcoin’s Bullish Signal Has 78% Accuracy—Analysts Say New Highs Likely

Capital inflow hits $544B as price pattern re-emerges in strong bull market

Bitcoin Registers Bullish Engulfing Pattern—Again

Bitcoin has printed a bullish engulfing candle on its daily chart, a technical formation known for reversing bearish momentum and often foreshadowing new price highs. On Monday, the cryptocurrency surged 4.34%, closing at $107,167, while maintaining support above $105,000 for two straight days.

This recent move fully reversed two prior days of selling pressure, forming the engulfing pattern that traders closely watch for clues about future trend direction.

78% Success Rate Since 2021

Cointelegraph’s analysis of Bitcoin’s daily charts since 2021 shows 19 confirmed bullish engulfing setups, defined as candles that cover the body of at least two prior sessions and emerge after a corrective move. Among those 19 signals, 15 led to new local highs, delivering a 78% success rate in predicting continued price rallies.

Crucially, all 19 patterns occurred within an ongoing bull market, with the only two failures since 2024 recorded in May 2024 and March 2025.

In contrast, during the 2022 bear market, four engulfing patterns failed to trigger any price momentum, reinforcing that trend context is critical for interpreting these signals.

Liquidity Conditions Mirror Late 2022 Rally

Adding to bullish sentiment, liquidity conditions have returned to levels not seen since December 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed at $16,800 and went on to double in three months, according to analytics firm Swissblock.

Liquidity is once again flowing back into the Bitcoin ecosystem, creating a setup that mirrors the start of the 2023 bull run. Analysts see this as a key signal that the rally may still have legs.

Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Hits All-Time High

Since its cycle low in November 2022, Bitcoin has absorbed more than $544 billion in capital inflows, pushing its realized market cap — a measure of actual capital stored in the network — to a record $944 billion, according to data from Glassnode.

This surge in realized cap supports the view that Bitcoin is not just rebounding—it’s evolving into a mature macro asset, responding increasingly to global liquidity trends rather than retail hype alone.

Short-Term Resistance, Long-Term Opportunity

While BTC has yet to break cleanly above $108,000, having failed on three separate occasions this week, the larger technical and macro backdrop remains supportive. Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin clears $109,000, it may enter a new price discovery phase on the road to all-time highs above $112,000.