Mark Carney Poised for Victory as Canadians Head to the Polls, Polymarket Bets Surge
Crypto Betting Platform Polymarket Shows Strong Confidence in Liberal Party
As Canadians prepare to cast their votes in a high-stakes snap election, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket is heavily favoring Mark Carney, the Liberal Party candidate, to become the next Prime Minister of Canada.
According to data captured on April 28, Polymarket assigns Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative challenger Pierre Poilievre. Over $75 million in wagers have already been placed by crypto users forecasting the election outcome. The strong betting trend mirrors results from traditional opinion polls, which also predict a Liberal resurgence following the abrupt resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in January.
Anti-Trump Sentiment Shifts Political Landscape
The sudden political shakeup was compounded by external factors. After Trudeau’s exit, former U.S. President Donald Trump amplified criticism toward Canada, describing the country as the United States’ “51st state” and labeling Trudeau its “governor.” Trump’s administration imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, further straining bilateral relations.
The backlash from Canadian citizens has been pronounced. At public events, boos for the U.S. national anthem became common, reflecting growing anti-Trump sentiment. Many Canadians have drawn comparisons between Trump and Poilievre, an association that may have damaged the Conservative candidate’s standing among undecided voters.
Crypto Takes a Backseat in Canadian Election Debate
Unlike the U.S. presidential race, where cryptocurrency has emerged as a policy issue, Canada’s election discourse has largely sidestepped digital assets.
Poilievre once pledged via social media in 2022 to turn Canada into the “blockchain capital of the world”, echoing Trump’s later promises about U.S. crypto leadership. However, since the crypto market downturn that year — triggered by collapses like Terra and FTX — Poilievre has remained largely silent on crypto issues.
Meanwhile, Carney’s track record signals skepticism toward decentralized currencies. As former governor of the Bank of England, he dismissed Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as “poor short-term stores of value.” His subsequent endorsement of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) further suggests that pro-crypto policies are unlikely under his leadership.
High-Profile Endorsements Stir Debate
Adding complexity to the race, Elon Musk and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong — both Canadian citizens — voiced support for Poilievre in January via social media. Despite their influence, their endorsements appear insufficient to sway the momentum building behind Carney.
Final Countdown to April 30
With the election results expected by April 30, the stakes are high for Canada’s future direction. The nation is not just choosing a leader; it is making a broader statement about its position on economic autonomy, international diplomacy, and, albeit less prominently, the future of digital finance.
As the polls close, the Polymarket data, traditional surveys, and public sentiment all suggest that Carney is on the verge of a significant political victory.
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