Solana’s months-long edge over Ethereum may be unraveling. With technical chart patterns flashing red and on-chain revenue collapsing, analysts now warn that Solana (SOL) could plunge 40% against Ether (ETH) as the memecoin hype that fueled its rise continues to cool.
Rising Wedge Breakdown Projects Major Losses for SOL
The SOL/ETH pair has officially broken below a rising wedge pattern, a historically bearish signal in technical analysis. According to recent charting, the breakdown could drag SOL to 0.038 ETH by July, down 40% from current levels.
SOL/ETH weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
As of May 29, the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) around 0.0628 ETH is acting as a soft floor. But a weekly close below that level could trigger further downside.
A reversal remains possible if SOL can bounce and reclaim the wedge’s lower trendline. However, without a decisive breakout above the wedge’s top, the bearish outlook stands.
The breakdown comes as speculative memecoin activity on Solana plunges. Activity on Pump.fun, the largest memecoin launchpad on the network, has seen a sharp drop in daily fees since April, nearing year-low levels, according to Dune Analytics.
Pump.Fun fee and revenue chart. Source: Dune Analytics
Between December 2024 and March 2025, Pump.fun helped push Solana’s cumulative fee revenue beyond 3 million SOL, driven by a flurry of retail memecoin trades. But with daily fees now collapsing, one of Solana’s biggest revenue engines has sputtered.
Standard Chartered: Ethereum Has the Edge in Infrastructure
In a May 27 report, Standard Chartered warned that Solana could underperform unless it diversifies beyond memecoin traffic, which currently dominates its ecosystem. The bank argued that Ethereum is gaining market share thanks to scalable layer-2 networks, which now offer comparable transaction fees and stronger real-world infrastructure.
This view echoes sentiment from chartist Alex Clay, who noted the onset of an “Ethereum outperformance season” and cited the rising wedge breakdown as a key signal.
A Wake-Up Call for Solana’s Long-Term Viability
Solana’s reliance on memecoins was once its advantage. Now, it’s a liability. As Ethereum’s ecosystem deepens and expands, Solana faces pressure to evolve or fall behind. Without new growth drivers, the current technical breakdown and revenue drop could mark the start of a deeper correction.
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