When Is the 3rd Wave Expected in South Africa?
On 5 March 2020, South Africa reported its first COVID-19 case. By 20 November 2021, the country had recorded 2 929 862 cases, including 94 471 fatalities. There have so far been three times when the transmission has risen (waves). Several definitions for the beginning of a COVID-19 wave in South Africa might lead to disagreements among academics or decision-makers. For researchers to provide consistent information regarding COVID-19, a clear, concise working definition for retrospective studies characterizing wave properties might be highly beneficial.
This article proposes a straightforward working definition for a COVID-19 wave (upward and downward phases) in South Africa to aid in the retrospective analysis of wave features. We do not advocate using this wave definition to forecast the beginning of a new wave or to direct any public health action. Here are some of the several wave definitions that have been employed.
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According to the South African revival strategy, a wave is the time frame that begins when the weekly incidence of COVID-19 is equal to or higher than 30 cases per 100 000 people and ends when it is equal to or lower than 30 cases per 100 000 people (resurgence plan not published). They utilized a weekly incidence of 5 cases per 100 000 people (upward and downward trends) as a threshold, perhaps because they were focusing on a subgroup of COVID-19 cases (admissions only), where the rate is lower. A similar criteria was used to characterize a COVID-19 wave among hospitalized patients.
However, The Number Of Cases has been Reducing Over The Last Few Months, and it is possible a third wave may not be imminent if all Covid Protocols are adhered to.
