Bitcoin’s Big Year Could Be 2026, Not 2025, Says Bitwise CIO
Matt Hougan calls time on the old four-year cycle, foresees steady boom
The traditional four-year Bitcoin market cycle may be coming to an end, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. In a recent interview, Hougan suggested that 2026—not 2025—could be Bitcoin’s next major “up year,” diverging from the typical halving-driven price pattern that has historically defined crypto bull markets.
Matt Hougan spoke to James Seyffart and Kyle Chassé on Friday. Source: Kyle Chassé
“Four-Year Cycle Is Dead”
“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan said in a video posted to X. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.”
The Bitwise executive explained that Bitcoin’s halving events are becoming less significant over time, with each successive reduction in block rewards having a diminishing impact on supply shock and investor sentiment. “The halving is half as important every four years,” he stated.
Hougan believes macroeconomic conditions will play a greater role than ever before. He pointed to political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates—notably from former President Donald Trump—as a bullish sign for Bitcoin. Lower rates tend to make traditional fixed-income assets less appealing, potentially driving more capital into crypto.
Another factor Hougan emphasized is the increasing regulatory clarity and institutional participation in the crypto space. “Blow-up risk is attenuated due to improving regulation and the institutionalization of the space,” he said.
He argued that these structural changes could extend Bitcoin’s current cycle beyond historical norms:
“The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic ‘four-year cycle’ forces… and 2026 will be a good year.”
Warning Signs: Treasury-Heavy Bitcoin Firms
However, Hougan did warn of “cyclical-style risk” in the form of companies holding large Bitcoin treasuries, which could be vulnerable in a market downturn. Asset manager VanEck recently echoed these concerns, cautioning that firms acquiring BTC through debt or new equity issuances may become overleveraged if Bitcoin prices fall sharply.
Bitcoin is trading at $118,169 at the time of publication, up 10.17% over the past 30 days. Source: Nansen
A Steady Boom, Not a Supercycle
Rather than a meteoric rise, Hougan expects a more measured ascent.
“I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he remarked, though adding, “I could be wrong, and I’m certain there will be significant volatility.”
His outlook comes just days after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju made a similar declaration that the four-year cycle is no longer valid. Ju noted that the old accumulation/distribution patterns driven by whale and retail activity have shifted.
“Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought,” Ju commented.
Not Everyone Agrees
Despite the growing chorus questioning the halving cycle, not all analysts are convinced. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital cautioned that Bitcoin may still be following the 2020 pattern, in which case the market could peak by October 2025—550 days post-halving.
As Bitcoin continues to evolve in the face of institutional interest, macroeconomic uncertainty, and maturing regulation, the once-reliable four-year playbook may no longer hold. Whether 2026 becomes the year of Bitcoin or another chapter in crypto’s unpredictable story remains to be seen.
Rhapsody of Realities is a life guide that brings you a fresh perspective from God’s Word every day. It features the day’s topic, a theme scripture, the day’s message, the daily confession and the Bible reading plan segment. It is God's Love Letter to You!
