Bitcoin Rally Not Over Yet, Analysts Say — Price Could Push Beyond $126K
On-chain data shows BTC market isn’t overheated despite new all-time highs
Bitcoin may have surged past $122,000, but analysts say the top is not in yet. Fresh data suggests the world’s largest cryptocurrency still has room to grow — and with solid support levels and limited signs of market exhaustion, the rally could extend deep into 2025.
No Sign of Overheating Yet
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin has not yet triggered the widely watched “Peak Signal” — a metric that historically appears near major market tops.
“The Peak Signal only appears at major market tops, and it hasn’t shown up this time,” Adler said. “That suggests we’re not at a peak yet.”
Another on-chain measure, Realized Cap – UTXO Age Bands, supports this view. During peak periods in March and December 2024, short-term holders (1-day to 1-week UTXOs) made up 14% of Bitcoin’s realized cap. Today, that figure is around 5%, indicating far less speculative pressure.
“The fact that overheating has significantly decreased suggests Bitcoin could continue to break all-time highs,” wrote CryptoQuant’s Crypto Dan.
Key Resistance Between $124K and $136K
Despite setting a new all-time high of $122,000 on July 14, Bitcoin is now testing short-term resistance at $124,000, according to CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk. This level represents the average cost basis for short-term holders pushed one standard deviation above the mean.
Another critical zone lies between $124,000 and $136,000, with $136,000 marking the upper bound where new buyers typically hold the most unrealized profit — a common area for profit-taking and temporary pullbacks.
“This area often coincides with market overbought conditions,” Crazzyblockk noted.
Support Levels to Watch on the Way Down
On the downside, the $101,000 mark is crucial, acting as the baseline cost basis for short-term Bitcoin holders. Historically, holding above this level has signaled continued bullish momentum.
Other important support zones include:
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$111,000 – average cost basis for recent buyers
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$113,000–$115,300 – aligned with Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA
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$107,500 – a +0.5 standard deviation MVRV support band
“Staying above $101,000 shows strong holder conviction and trend continuation,” Crazzyblockk added.
Market Conditions Still Favor Growth
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, a valuation metric tracking how far price deviates from historical norms, remains well below its historical peaks, offering further upside potential.
“Despite the price rising even higher, data shows the market isn’t overheated like in previous cycles,” wrote CryptoQuant analysts.
To maintain upward momentum, Bitcoin must reclaim the $119,250–$120,700 zone and break past resistance at $124,000. From there, new all-time highs become even more likely.
