Bitcoin Staggers in June as Wall Street Eyes Another Summer Rally

BTC risks fourth consecutive summer loss while S&P 500 rides AI-fueled gains

Bitcoin is staring down its fourth straight red summer if current trends continue through August, while the S&P 500 is on track for its third consecutive summer rally, buoyed by strong earnings and surging investor interest in artificial intelligence.

Since 2020, the divergence between the two markets has been most stark in June, where Bitcoin has only posted one positive performance in five years, while the S&P 500 has had just two negative Junes during that span.

Bitcoin’s Seasonal Struggles: A Closer Look

From regulatory crackdowns in China to crypto-native collapses like Terra and Celsius, Bitcoin’s June downturns are often triggered by internal shocks rather than broader economic cycles.

• June 2020: Bitcoin slid 3.18% after the halving and a brief rally above $10,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 stayed in the green as stimulus checks and DeFi mania dominated headlines.

• June 2021: Bitcoin was rocked by China’s sweeping ban on crypto mining. The digital asset spent the summer recovering, ending up 8.68% by August. That was Bitcoin’s last positive summer.

• June 2022: Terra’s collapse, followed by Celsius’ liquidity crisis and Three Arrows Capital’s downfall, drove Bitcoin deep into the red. Simultaneously, U.S. inflation peaked at 9.1%, and the Fed raised interest rates aggressively. The S&P 500 rebounded in July but faltered in August after Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech.

ETF Hopes and Reality Check

In June 2023, a flood of spot Bitcoin ETF applications — including one from BlackRock — sent Bitcoin up 12% for the month. But despite the ETF momentum, macro uncertainty and China’s Evergrande bankruptcy dragged prices back down in August.

That summer ended with another red mark for Bitcoin, while the S&P 500 posted modest gains, thanks to resilient tech stocks and tempered rate hike expectations.

June 2024: Old Patterns Return

Bitcoin dropped again in June 2024, pressured by weak ETF inflows, post-halving miner selling, and a global unwind of yen carry trades. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose steadily, powered by Nvidia and other tech giants as well as increased confidence in a Fed-engineered soft landing.

By August, crypto faced renewed headwinds from China’s economic slowdown and intensifying global trade tensions. Yet Wall Street stayed afloat, posting another green close for the month.

Geopolitics, Oil, and Market Volatility

Now, with Middle East tensions escalating — including a U.S. airstrike on Iran on June 23 and renewed threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows — inflation fears are resurfacing. A ceasefire negotiated by President Donald Trump has reportedly collapsed, raising the stakes across both crypto and traditional markets.

“Trump has warned Israel not to follow through with threats of ‘powerful strikes’ on Iran.”

Crypto Still Reacts to Its Own Triggers

While Bitcoin’s integration into institutional markets via ETFs and treasuries has increased its correlation with equities, it remains vulnerable to crypto-native events.

Unlike the S&P 500, which reacts to earnings, inflation, and Fed decisions, Bitcoin continues to be driven by internal developments — from halving cycles and regulatory moves to protocol collapses and liquidity crunches.

Even as Web3 matures, “sell in May and go away” remains a poor fit for Bitcoin.