XRP Faces Deep Correction Risk as Charts Signal 50% Drop
Technical patterns and trader behavior hint at turbulent times ahead for XRP holders
XRP’s Recent Rally Could Be Short-Lived
After bouncing nearly 30% from a four-month low of $1.61, XRP’s current momentum is showing signs of weakness. The recovery, sparked amid rising global tariff tensions, may soon face a sharp reversal, according to both technical chart patterns and on-chain data.
Bearish Pattern Suggests a 40%+ Crash Could Be Looming
A classic bearish technical setup known as the inverse cup-and-handle pattern has formed on XRP’s chart. This formation often precedes steep declines, and traders are now watching for a decisive break below the neckline support at $2.
If this breakdown plays out, XRP could drop to as low as $1.24, representing a nearly 40% correction from current levels.
This bearish target also aligns with XRP’s 200-period exponential moving average on the 3-day chart, currently hovering around $1.28, which previously marked a local top in November 2024.
Renowned technical analyst Peter Brandt further reinforced the cautionary outlook, suggesting XRP’s market capitalization may decline by 50% in the coming weeks.
Fractal Patterns and On-Chain Data Echo Bearish Outlook
Historically, XRP has tended to fall back toward its realized price — the average price at which all coins were last moved — after big rallies. That level now sits around $1, and current conditions suggest it may act as a magnet for selling pressure once again.
In past cycles, including 2018 and 2021, similar surges were followed by pullbacks to this level, a psychological threshold where many traders face mounting pressure to either take profits or cut losses.
Adding to bearish concerns is the current profit distribution. Over 80% of XRP holders are in profit, a metric that has historically preceded major selloffs as investors rush to lock in gains before declines deepen.
Sentiment Fades: Record Highs Seem Increasingly Unlikely
While XRP briefly traded above $3.20 in 2025, its climb appears to have stalled. According to prediction market Polymarket, the odds of XRP hitting a new all-time high above $3.55 before 2026 have dropped significantly — from over 60% in March to just 35% as of April 19.
This declining confidence comes as global markets retreat amid mounting trade tensions, especially under the renewed economic pressure of Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
Bottom Line: History May Be Repeating for XRP
The warning signs are stacking up: bearish chart patterns, historical fractal behavior, and a high percentage of profitable holders — all pointing to potential for a 40–50% correction.
While nothing is guaranteed in crypto, traders and investors should stay vigilant, especially as sentiment continues to turn and technical signals worsen.
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